US, Iran signal peace deal near as Tehran claims victory

DUBAI/WASHINGTON/PARIS - The United States and Iran signalled on June 12 that an agreement to end their war was close, with a senior US administration official saying both sides had agreed on a text and that Washington expects to sign an initial deal in the coming days.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said changes were yet possible, but the tentative agreement made clear that his country had emerged stronger from the conflict.

“Iran is the winner of the war with the US,” he said on state television.

Hours after those remarks, US forces shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones heading towards the Strait of Hormuz, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the drones had posed a threat to commercial traffic. US Central Command later confirmed the action and said the waterway was open for transit.

Iranian news agencies had reported that explosions were heard along the strait in Iran’s Sirik port and Qeshm island, which residents and local officials attributed to shots fired by Iranian forces to warn vessels attempting to cross the waterway without permission from the Revolutionary Guards’ navy.

The so-called memorandum of understanding calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, sources on all sides of the deal said.

Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme – US President Donald Trump’s stated rationale for starting the war – would take place afterwards.

The US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that the deal met Trump’s core objectives and put negotiations “in a very, very good place.”

Leaked terms of the proposed memorandum outlined by Western, Pakistani and Iranian sources earlier on June 12 appeared to favour Iran, drawing criticism from Trump, who dismissed the reports as inaccurate.

While there were minor differences in the accounts, all appeared to offer Tehran much of what it has demanded so far, with Trump appearing to win little of what he has sought beyond the reopening of the strait, which Iran shut after the US and Israel launched attacks in February.

Araghchi said Iran would along with Oman retain control of traffic through the strait, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.

“Our sword will always hang over the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

A Western source said the deal could be signed as soon as June 14 by US Vice-President J.D. Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, with Geneva seen as the likeliest venue.

The US administration official said Europe had been discussed as a venue for signing but no decision had been made.

Araghchi said the deal would be signed remotely before it is announced.

What’s in the deal?

Draft terms of the deal described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate that the US would immediately begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.

Iran’s nuclear programme would be addressed during a 60-day period of talks. The US official said the agreement would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed – a key US demand.

The terms also include an inspection regime to ensure compliance over the long term.

But Araghchi told state television that Iran, which sources said has not accepted the dismantling of its nuclear programme, wanted to retain the uranium in diluted form.

“For Tehran, the only preferred solution for its highly enriched uranium stockpile is down-blending the material,” he said.

The proposals include discussion of possible war reparations for Tehran and dropping longstanding US demands for limits on Iran’s missile programme, the sources said.

The US official disputed that account.

“None of their money released until they perform. Strait of Hormuz will be open. No Iran funding of terrorist groups,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “This is what they have agreed to.

“This is a performance-based deal.”

Israel not party to memorandum

Israel, which launched the war alongside the US, has not been part of the negotiations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not be party to the agreement.

Netanyahu has clashed with Trump in recent weeks over US demands that Israel curb military action in Lebanon to let Washington reach a deal with Tehran.

Araghchi said the agreement would end the war in Lebanon, which would mean Israel’s withdrawal from occupied areas.

Israel’s defence minister, however, said it would not withdraw from Lebanon. A senior Israeli official said Israel expects to retain its freedom to act against threats in areas under its control.

Oil price falls

The progress towards an agreement has emerged at the end of a week that brought a sharp escalation in hostilities in the Gulf, including Israeli-Iranian exchanges of fire and US strikes on Iranian targets, followed by retaliation against US bases.

Global stocks rose and oil prices fell on the news. Brent crude prices were down more than 3 per cent at their lowest in nearly two months.

The conflict has become a political headache for the White House, amid rising fuel prices and slipping approval ratings for Trump.

Some Republicans worry that the war’s unpopularity could cost them control of Congress in November’s midterm elections. But many of Trump’s fellow Republicans may have difficulty endorsing an agreement viewed as too favourable to Iran. REUTERS